Living with this new residents: the end result of Venezuelan pushed migration on work sector when you look at the Colombia

Living with this new residents: the end result of Venezuelan pushed migration on work sector when you look at the Colombia

Conceptual

We guess the result of one’s Venezuelan exodus into Colombian work markets. The commercial and you will personal drama for the Venezuela brought about among the many vital migratory exoduses during the previous many years: more than cuatro billion Venezuelans left the country and close to step 1.8 billion found its way to Colombia. We show that a boost in step one p.p out of work also provide due new migratory move caused a drop in every hour earnings when you look at the Colombia out of 0.4% and an awful effectation of 0.step one p.p. towards work rates out-of low-competent professionals. The latest miss in the wages try greater for men, low-competent and you will relaxed gurus.

Introduction

The fresh Venezuelan migratory exodus the most important periods out of forced migration around the globe: throughout the 4.5 billion regarding Venezuelans kept their nation and moved somewhere else Footnote step one (UNHCR 2019). The most common place to go for departing Venezuelan migrants is Colombia. Based on authoritative analytics, there have been almost 1.8 billion out-of Venezuelans living in Colombia for the 2019, due to brand new Venezuelan monetary and you will political crisis, and therefore stands for an increase in the newest express from Venezuelans living in Colombia relative to the fresh national inhabitants from 0.07% when you look at the 2015 to three.6% as much as inside the 2019.

This extreme episode of migration is short for an issue in order to policymakers who attempt to understand and assess the possibility monetary and societal consequences of these an enormous inflow out-of immigrants, especially for machine places such Colombia.

Contained in this paper, We exploit the brand new Venezuelan exodus so you can understand the migratory episode’s affect brand new Colombian labor markets. We apply a differences-in-distinctions strategy and conduct my studies of the due to the amount of visibility round the Colombian departments compared to that exogenous labor also provide shock, both before and after 2016 (we.e. 2013-2019). In 2016 a serious and you can unforeseen migratory increase out of Venezuelans in order to Colombia happened if the borders among them regions was indeed reopened just after almost a year out-of closure.

My estimates advise that the brand new intensification of the migratory circulate out of Venezuelans beginning in middle-2016 produced a life threatening shed in aggregate earnings as well as in this new work rate regarding lower-skilled professionals for the Colombia. A boost in 1 percentage part (p.p.) of labor pool because of the inflow regarding Venezuelans made an excellent 0.4% reduction of wages and you will a 0.step one p.p. reduced amount of a position for low-skilled professionals; that it influence on employment depict a decrease from 0.18% in line with the common employment price regarding lower-competent Colombian professionals inside the 2015, up until the Venezuelan exodus. As i guess this type of outcomes having Colombian divisions found on the edging which have Venezuela (Los angeles Guajira and you can Norte de Santander), overall performance illustrate that the refuses into the wages and you may employment for everybody professionals have been around ten% and step 3.4 p.p. (a mediocre work), respectively, after the border are re also-unsealed.

To help you estimate the end result away from migration throughout these a few border departments, We build a running classification using around three departments away from Colombia that were not strongly affected by immigration and you may demonstrated, an average of, similar style with respect to labor market variables together with equivalent socio-demographic features ahead of the edging re also-opening. To provide robustness to the abilities, We use a plastic material Control Strategy and you can assess a comparable differences-in-differences estimations provided other combos away from divisions out of Colombia due to the fact handle groups.

I additionally guess heterogeneous consequences from the sex, number of qualification, work formality and you will given whether the citizens were locals or otherwise not. I’ve found you to, inside the aggregate, the brand new deterioration within the wages is actually high for males than the girls and far healthier to have low-competent pros. More over, new decrease in earnings was greater getting everyday pros but indeed there are not essential differences when considering locals and you can low-natives; really the only difference is that I’ve found a mathematically tall raise about informality speed one of non-residents from inside the Colombia.